Trends in fishing opportunities in European fisheries following the last Common Fishery Policy reform

Since the end of the 20th century, the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) has been at the core of debates in the fisheries sector from a biological, economic, and geopolitical perspective. In theory, MSY aims to maximize fishery yields while preventing harmful declines in stock biomasses. However, MSY is primarily derived from monospecific population dynamics and does not necessarily achieve a suitable balance between exploitation, socioeconomic objectives, and foodweb and ecosystem functioning. Since the reform of the European Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) in 2013, FMSY has been the management target for European fisheries. Given the high prevalence of overexploited stocks at the time, fisheries theory suggests that, for those stocks, a reduction in fishing mortality should lead to an increase in biomass, which in turn should result in an increase in fishing opportunities. While some of the indicators calculated to monitor the effectiveness of the CFP show encouraging signs regarding stock status, the fishing industry, which in the meantime has also been affected by a series of crises, does not seem to perceive the expected benefits. Using a meta-analysis of 92 stocks assessed by ICES in the Northeast Atlantic, we examined how scientists' advice on fishing opportunities has evolved and whether it has responded to changes in F and SSB since the last CFP reform. While the analyses show that fishing opportunities have increased mainly in cases where fishing mortality and spawning stock biomass have changed the most, they also appear to be evolving more slowly, and the picture remains rather mixed. This may also reflect adverse signals of global change and the impact this may have on future fishing opportunities.