Combining scenario workshops with modeling to assess future irrigation water demands

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Identifiant documentaire 8-876438
Identifiant OAI 876438
Auteur(s): Rinaudo Jean-Daniel,Maton Laure,Terrason Isabelle,Chazot Sebastien,Richard-Ferroudji Audrey,Caballero Yvan
Mots clés CHANGEMENT GLOBAL DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT FORESIGHT PLANIFICATION INCERTITUDE AGRICULTURE EAU ENVIRONNEMENT IRRIGATION FRANCE UNCERTAINTY PLANNING GLOBAL CHANGE
Date de publication 01/01/2013
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We discuss methodological issues related to the development of long term future agricultural water demand scenarios. We present the results of original research which combines the use of scenario workshops with quantitative crop water requirement modeling approaches. Using a Southern France case study, we describe four scenarios, debated with farmers and stakeholders during workshops and evaluated in terms of total water demand. Results suggest that socio-economic evolution could lead to a 40% increase of irrigation water demand. From a methodological perspective, the research highlights the mutual benefits for both policy makers and scientists of involving stakeholders in the development of scenarios, using both qualitative storylines and quantitative modeling tools.
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