Global distribution and climatic match of a highly traded ornamental freshwater fish, the sailfin molly

Predicting alien species' establishment through climate matching may inform management actions preventing future invasions. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the climate match of the sailfin molly (Poecilia latipinna) worldwide, with emphasis on Europe and the Mediterranean. A literature review indicated that the species presents a total of 100 non-indigenous occurrences in 29 countries worldwide. Predominantly, it has been introduced within tropical/subtropical climatic zones, where it is usually clustered near ornamental trade centers and malaria affected areas. Overall, sailfin molly distribution reflects a warm-stenothermic tolerance, however, there are validated populations outside the subtropical belt in geothermally heated water bodies. Its invasion potential, assessed by Climatch tool, indicated a low environmental match (5% of the assessed sites) within Europe, whereas in the Mediterranean this rose to 60%, though the species is recorded only at one location. This poor match of the model's output may reflect its inability to take into account local environmental filters. Intolerance to prolonged temperature drops appears to be the leading factor constraining sailfin molly establishment in Europe. Additional constrains on its successful invasion, i.e. specialized habitat requirements, limited propagule supply or reduced reproductive fitness, due to breeding manipulations of commercially available strains, are discussed.